Nvidia's recent GTC conference in Washington, D.C., dropped a bombshell: a $500 billion order book for its Blackwell and Rubin GPUs through 2026. That’s half a trillion dollars. The immediate reaction? Predictably positive. Investors are salivating, seeing nothing but upside. But let's dissect this number, shall we? Because a big number doesn't always equal a guaranteed win.
Parsing the Order Book
First, the headline: $500 billion. It’s impressive, sure, but it's an order book. Not actual revenue. Nvidia claims 30% of those GPUs—roughly 6 million units—have already shipped. That’s good news, indicating real demand. The really interesting figure is the revenue projection: $350 billion over the next five quarters, or $70 billion per quarter. Now, let’s put that in context. Nvidia reported $47 billion in total revenue in the second quarter of its fiscal year 2026. That means they’re anticipating nearly a 50% increase per quarter based on these new GPU sales.
Can they deliver? That’s the billion-dollar question (or, more accurately, the $350 billion question). This hinges on several factors, not least of which is their ability to actually produce and ship these GPUs at the scale required. Supply chain bottlenecks, manufacturing hiccups – these are the kinds of mundane realities that can derail even the most ambitious projections. And what assumptions are baked into that $70 billion/quarter? Average selling price? Gross margin? These are crucial details that are, conveniently, missing from the press releases.
Nvidia's current stock price sits around $190.00, showing a modest daily increase. It currently trades at 55 times trailing sales (as of late 2025). That’s a hefty premium, reflecting the market's expectation of continued, explosive growth. But if those $70 billion quarterly targets aren’t met, that multiple is going to look awfully rich, awfully fast.
The China Factor and Supercomputer Dreams
Then there's the China elephant in the room. Nvidia has zero share of the Chinese data center market thanks to U.S. export restrictions and Chinese government policies. This used to be a significant chunk of their business – around 20% to 25% of data center revenue. Losing that market is a major headwind, even if they're killing it elsewhere. Can the rest of the world truly compensate for the loss of China? My analysis suggests that it is a big ask.
Nvidia's partnership with Oracle and the U.S. Department of Energy to build AI supercomputers is another interesting angle. The Solstice system (100,000 Blackwell GPUs) and the Equinox system (10,000 GPUs) are massive deployments. But government projects are notorious for delays, budget overruns, and shifting priorities. (Remember the F-35 fighter jet? Enough said.) Relying too heavily on these contracts could introduce a different kind of risk: political risk.
I've looked at hundreds of these filings, and this particular situation reminds me of the dot-com boom, where companies were valued on "potential" rather than actual earnings. Nvidia's revenue growth has been over 50% year-over-year for nine consecutive quarters. That's an incredible run, but can it last? Economic laws suggest that such exponential growth is unsustainable in the long term. It’s like a rocket – eventually, it runs out of fuel. What happens to Nvidia when the AI hype cools down, or when competitors catch up? Jensen Huang Just Delivered Incredible News for Nvidia Stock Investors - The Motley Fool
So, What's the Real Story?
Nvidia is undoubtedly in a strong position right now. The demand for AI chips is real, and they are the undisputed leader in the space. But $500 billion in orders doesn't automatically translate to $500 billion in the bank. There are too many variables, too many potential pitfalls, and too much hype baked into the current valuation. A correction is inevitable. The only question is when, and how severe.
